Unemployment drops in Bulgaria
Ukraine: Fitch improves the country’s GDP forecast
Polish business daily, Puls Biznesu, informs there are “at least 15 international companies seeking investment in Poland.” That implies some 20,000 new jobs to be created in Poland by the end of 2017.
Puls Biznesu quotes Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki: “In the last three or four months I have talked to 15 or 20 investment banks, consulting companies and financial institutions interested in expansion and opening new service centers (…). The companies are willing to invest in Poland because the situation in the country is stable, the education level is high and there is a lot of people with IT and language skills who are seeking jobs, and salaries are still low.”
Puls Biznesu lists the companies with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo & Company, Moody’s and ICBC Standard Bank among them.
In Q3’2016 the unemployment in Bulgaria dropped by 1.3 per cent y/y. Novinite.com reports after the National Statistical Institute (NSI) that there were some 229,000 persons in the third quarter of 2016 – less by 50,300 compared to the period between July and September of 2015. Some 130,100 (56.8 per cent) of them were men and some 98,900 (43.2 per cent) were women.
According to the NSI the long-term unemployment rate was 4.3 per cent (it dropped by 0.9 per cent compared with Q3’2015). The long-term unemployment rate was 4.7 per cent for women and 3.9 per cent for women. Of the total number of unemployed persons some 41 thousand, or almost 18 per cent, were looking for a first job.
The employment rate for the group aged between 15 to 64 years was 64.2 per cent. Youth unemployment (namely unemployment in the group aged 15 to 29) was 38.9 per cent. In the group aged between 55 to 64 years it was 55.6 per cent.
The Interfax reports Fitch Ratings improved its forecasts for Ukraine. According to new predictions Ukraine's GDP will grow by 1.1 per cent in 2016, 2.5 per cent in 2017 and 3 per cent in 2018. It’s 0.5 p.p. higher for the two figures than previously anticipated (May 2016).
The agency quotes the press release of Fitch: "Political risks remain significant, but near-term political volatility has eased. Privatization has yet to gain momentum. The unresolved conflict in eastern Ukraine will continue to weigh on growth performance and expectations. (…)The macroeconomic policy framework has been strengthened through increased exchange rate flexibility and tight monetary policy. Macroeconomic stability has improved, despite the delay in completing the second EFF review, as reflected by rapidly declining inflation, slower currency depreciation and a mild growth recovery.”
The agency underlines the banking sector has stabilized but is weak with low capitalization levels and non-performing loans of over 50 per cent, and poses a risk to economic stability and constrains economic recovery. Inflation forecast is average 14.9 per cent in 2016 (down from 48.5 per cent in 2015). In 2017 it would be 9.5 per cent and in 2018 – 8 per cent. Earlier Fitch forecasted 15 per cent for 2016, 11 per cent for 2017 and 11 per cent for 2018.
What’s up in indexes
BUX (of Budapest) dropped by 1.24 per cent – falling from 30502.15 index points Friday, November 11th to 30122.88 index points Monday, November 14th. So it dropped by 1.24 per cent d/d. From year-end it’s up 27.93 per cent.
BET (of Bucharest Stock Exchange) was up 0.23 per cent – increasing from 6849.80 index points Friday, November 11th to 6854.72 index points Monday, November 14th. From year-end it dropped by 2.10 per cent.
PX (of Prague) was up 0.46 per cent – increasing from 900.99 index points Friday, November 11th to 905.11 index points Monday, November 14th. From year-end it dropped by 5.36 per cent.
WIG20 (of Warsaw) dropped by 2.39 per cent d/d and by 5.66 per cent from year-end. It decreased from 1796.75 index points Thursday, November 10th to 1753.86 index points Friday, November 14th.
OMXT (of Tallinn) increased from 1027.92 index points Friday, November 11th to 1028.57 index points Monday, November 14th. So it’s up 0.06 per cent d/d and up 14.41 per cent from year-end.
OMXR (of Riga) dropped by 0.12 per cent d/d. It decreased from 711.81 index points Friday, November 11th to 710.96 index points Monday, November 14th. From year-end it’s up 19.62 per cent.
OMXV (of Vilnius) was up 0.21 per cent d/d and up 15.09 per cent from year-end. It increased from 558.14 index points Friday, November 11th to 559.31 index points Monday, November 14th.
SAX (of Bratislava) was up 0.29 per cent d/d – increasing from 313.57 index points Friday, November 11th to 314.49 index points Monday, November 14th. From year-end its’ up 7.57 per cent.
SOFIX (of Sofia) dropped by 0.84 per cent – falling from 539.13 index points Friday, November 11th to 534.62 index points Monday, November 14th. From year-end it’s up 15.99 per cent.
UX (of Kyiv) decreased from 837.63 index points Friday, November 11th to 811.69 index points Monday, November 14th. It dropped by 3.10 per cent d/d. From year-end it’s up 18.35 per cent.
CROBEX (of Zagreb) was up 0.67 per cent – increasing from 1962.86 index points Friday, November 11th to 1975.95 index points Monday, November 14th. From year-end it’s up 16.95 per cent.