I am confident that for the next 5 to 10 years Poland will continue to grow if the world economy is growing without a major global recession or depression, says Peter Jarrett, PhD, Head of the OECD Central and Eastern Europe Unit.
Besides furniture, household appliances, apples and cultivated mushrooms Polish exporters are also starting to successfully sell abroad knowledge and solutions in the cutting-edge technology.
Since the beginning of this year we have been observing a slowdown in investment, which applies especially to medium and large-sized non-financial enterprises.
The Polish lower house of parliament voted in November to halt increases in the retirement age, adding to pressures on government borrowing costs and leading some to believe the country could be forced back into the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure in 2017.
The International Monetary Fund still believes that emerging markets will return to the economic prosperity which characterized them in the first decade of this century.
Is monetary policy, even extremely unconventional, still capable of fixing anything in the economy?
Two leading Polish economists discussed the record of the government on the eve of the first anniversary of its coming to power at a seminar organized by the CASE Centrum Analiz Spoleczno- Ekonomicznych, (Center for Social and Economic Research) and mBank in Warsaw.
“We are paying attention to the fiscal side, not the decline in investment,” said Dietmar Hornung from the Moody's rating agency. Next year, Poland's GDP will increase by about 3 per cent and the inflation rate will be positive as early as December 2016.
Over the years, the Visegrad Group was more of a geographical rather than a political concept. Currently there is a political rapprochement between the countries of the group.
The EU 3 per cent of GDP limit in a state budget is of no major macroeconomic relevance in Poland. The issue is different – lack of capability to generate savings in good times.