The main result of the privatization of the Polish chemical sector, founded on the principle of "have your cake and eat it", is the growing debt of companies from this sector. A real privatization seems to be an increasingly unrealistic prospect. The government focuses its efforts on opposing Russian investment plans.
The current decade will not be a golden one for Poland. There is a chance, though, the decade will not be lost. In the coming decade, Poland may grow at an average rate of 3% per year. This is less than in the past 20 years but a slowdown accompanying a growth in the wealth of a country is quite natural.
The easing of the crisis suffered by the euro area for a few years reactivated the topic of our presence there. The awareness that without the euro adoption Poland would remain an insignificant EU player is increasing. The first dates of Poland's accession to the euro area are popping up, but these do not take into account the conditions we would have to meet to think about it at all. And before Poland’s EU accession becomes a fact, there are numerous preparations that are necessary.
The Italian Fiat decided to close one of its manufacturing plants in Tychy, Poland. In 2013, Fiat's output in Poland will drop from 650 thousand two years ago to as little as 300 thousand cars. The problems of the Polish Fiat reflect like in a magnifying glass some of the important challenges faced by the Polish economy. Firstly, the high level of industrial productivity does not guarantee a fast development any more. Secondly, we live in an environment where capital has a nationality, and Poland's national capital remains limited. Let's hope that Fiat's problems do not presage an unfavourable period for the Polish economy.
The Conference Board, almost a hundred years old global business organisation, published its economic development projections several days ago. The projections say that between 2013 and 2018 Poland’s GDP growth rate would be 1.9%, and 1.5% between 2019 and 2025. The pessimistic option is that the growth would be ca. 1% a year, while optimists say it would be 2.7% and 2.0%.
The finance minister believes that next year the European Union will decide to abrogate the excessive deficit procedure against Poland. This would give the government a free hand to implement reforms stimulating the economy. But Poland is at a distant position among 10 countries currently covered by the procedure and waiting for its abrogation.
Five steps – and not one more – is supposedly all the Minister of Health needs to reform the health care system. The problem is he presented no details, only catchy slogans. No costs of the reform were mentioned. The one thing we know for sure is that the government plans to spend PLN 100 million a year for subsidising in vitro procedures.
When Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed parliament last week he was speaking to a much wider audience than just the deputies sitting in front of him and the national public – key recipients of his message were the analysts whose recommendations guide the decisions of both equity and fixed income foreign investors.
Many countries, especially European ones, are tormented by the financial crisis that has been evolving since 2007, and the recession developing since the beginning of the year. An attempt to describe this situation using a single keyword is a far-reaching simplification as each of the phenomena gives rise to completely different threats, and consequently requires a different countermeasure.
The announcement of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s keynote address has spurred the Polish opposition into action. In early September, all opposition parties presented their ideas for the economy. They can hardly be called programmes, as they have the form of more or less haphazard proposals. Their common feature is a disregard for the economic situation in the region and for the declining power of the budget.